Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Oscar Predictions

After having seen all 5 pictures nominated for best movie, I think it's about time I make my own predictions on who can win this year. The ceremony is in 3 weeks, and hopefully we'll enjoy it in hd for the first time!

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Diana Ossana, James Schamus

Capote (2005) - Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven

Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Grant Heslov

Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy, Barry Mendel

Except for Capote. which was too 1D for a movie, all other 4 movies can make it. My personal favorites are Crash and Goodnight and Goodluck, but at the end I think that Brokeback Mountain will win. Munich is more well done that the other 4 movies, but I don't think it is very good in terms of storytelling.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005)

Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow (2005)

Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line (2005)

David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)

Joaquin Phoenix may deserve the oscar but last year's award to Jamie Foxx for Ray for a very similar movie is still too young. Philip Seymour Hoffman will fight head to head with David Strathairn, but Strathairns's performance stands out I think this year for me. He lifted the whole movie on his own, he was truly majestic.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)

Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005)

Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice (2005)

Charlize Theron for North Country (2005)

Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line (2005)

Keira? I wish, but she's still too young. Charlize? Hm, she was good but maybe it's too much for her to be awarded a 2nd oscar. Reese was great but she has a weird history with all these romantic stupid movies. That leaves Judi and Felicity... I just don't know between these two.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
George Clooney for Syriana (2005)

Matt Dillon for Crash (2004)

Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man (2005)

Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

William Hurt for A History of Violence (2005)

I've seen all 5 movies... nothing is too exciting here I think. Definately not Clooney, definately not Hurt. I think I like Gylenhaal best of these.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Junebug (2005)

Catherine Keener for Capote (2005)

Frances McDormand for North Country (2005)

Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (2005)

Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Haven't seen Junebug. From the rest, Frances McDormand is my pick, and runner up Rachel Weisz. I don't think Michelle Williams can make it, she was just crying in the movie.

Best Achievement in Directing
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)

Paul Haggis for Crash (2004)

Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Bennett Miller for Capote (2005)

Steven Spielberg for Munich (2005)

Capote? No! Ang Lee? Maybe, but I'm not excited. Spielberg could make it, but I don't think it's his time this year, which leaves us with Haggis and Clooney. Personally I would prefer Haggis for a masterfull direction in a beautiful movie.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney, Grant Heslov

Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen

The Squid and the Whale (2005) - Noah Baumbach

Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan

Syriana is definately the most hard screenpplay to write here. And Crash is always in.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana

Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Jeffrey Caine

A History of Violence (2005) - Josh Olson

Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth

I think this goes to Brokeback Mountain. It's just a very interesting story, the other screenplays are not that original.

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Batman Begins (2005) - Wally Pfister

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Rodrigo Prieto

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Robert Elswit

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Dion Beebe

The New World (2005) - Emmanuel Lubezki

Goodnight and Good Luck here. It just feels very original and beautiful in B&W.

Best Achievement in Editing
Cinderella Man (2005) - Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Claire Simpson

Crash (2004) - Hughes Winborne

Munich (2005) - Michael Kahn

Walk the Line (2005) - Michael McCusker

I'll be surprised if Crash or the Constant Gardener don't make it here.

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - James D. Bissell, Jan Pascale

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) - Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan

King Kong (2005) - Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Myhre, Gretchen Rau

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

That is a tough one.. Either King Kong or GN&GL. Geisha was pretty good too!

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005) - Gabriella Pescucci

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Colleen Atwood

Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Sandy Powell

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Jacqueline Durran

Walk the Line (2005) - Arianne Phillips

I think the Geisha, beautiful Japanese costumes.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Gustavo Santaolalla

The Constant Gardener (2005) - Alberto Iglesias

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Williams

Munich (2005) - John Williams

Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Dario Marianelli

The Geisha had very nice music (although the movie is not great), and BM had just the right music exactly when needed... I would go for BM on this one.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Hustle & Flow (2005) - Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard ("It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp")

Crash (2004) - Michael Becker, Kathleen York ("In the Deep")

Transamerica (2005) - Dolly Parton ("Travelin' Thru")

Don't have a clue... Crash?

Best Achievement in Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Howard Berger, Tami Lane

Cinderella Man (2005) - David LeRoy Anderson, Lance Anderson

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) - Dave Elsey, Annette Miles

Narnia would be my favorite here... unless they want to give an oscar to Star Wars.

Best Achievement in Sound
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic, Tony Johnson

King Kong (2005) - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett

Walk the Line (2005) - Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland

War of the Worlds (2005) - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ron Judkins

Probably Walk the Line... It's a music movie after all!

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
King Kong (2005) - Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn

Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Wylie Stateman

War of the Worlds (2005) - Richard King

King Kong. It was just too much fun!

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar

King Kong (2005) - Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor

War of the Worlds (2005) - Pablo Helman, Dennis Muren, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick

If King Kong doesn't win here, I'll be damned!

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Corpse Bride (2005) - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson

Hauru no ugoku shiro (2004) - Hayao Miyazaki

Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) - Steve Box, Nick Park

Corpse Bride almost for certain. Great artwork from Tim Burton.

Best Documentary, Features
Darwin's Nightmare (2004) - Hubert Sauper

Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room (2005) - Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot

Marche de l'empereur, La (2005) - Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau

Murderball (2005) - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro

Street Fight (2005) - Marshall Curry

March of the Penguins, please!

That wraps it up. Let's see how good the predictions are...